2025 GRAMMY Predictions: Who Will Win Pop Vocal Album?

It’s that time of year again for music lovers—GRAMMYs season. The 2025 GRAMMY Awards are set to air on February 2, live from Los Angeles. But until then, music journalists and fans alike will be buzzing with predictions about who will take home the highly sought-after golden gramophones. One of the most competitive nominee pools in modern history (and the first time this category is all women!) comes in the Pop Vocal Album category. The nominees? You may have heard of a few albums: The Tortured Poets Department, Taylor Swift. Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter. The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan. Eternal Sunshine, Ariana Grande. And HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, Billie Eilish. In any other year, any of these albums would easily win the prize. So, in our opinion, who will win the Grammy for Pop Vocal Album? Who should win the GRAMMY Award for Pop Vocal Album? Let’s take a look at the GRAMMY nominees.

Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter

After nearly a decade in the music industry, Sabrina Carpenter has burst like an overripe cherry to the very top of every chart imaginable with tracks from Short N’ Sweet, her sixth studio album overall and second on Island Records. In the follow-up to her career-changing 2022 album Emails I Can’t Send, Sabrina is more adventurous, more glitzy, and more brutally honest (if that’s somehow possible). Short N’ Sweet is dripping with sugary romance, complete with the bold bite that gives Sabrina Carpenter one of the best albums of the year.

Right out of the gate, Sabrina makes it clear that she has no beef with her ex’s rekindled romance, but she’s certainly not one to allow someone else to get the last word on ‘Taste.’ ‘Good Graces’ and ‘Please Please Please’ see Carpenter at her most sweetly ruthless, keeping her romantic partners in line with her angelic demeanor, but “don’t mistake [her] nice for naive.” She’s singing out power plays on top of the most addictive and inventive production. The sparkling, flirtatious, R&B-influenced ‘Bed Chem’ takes the cake for the most erotically-charged of Short N’ Sweet‘s tracklisting, but amorous ‘Juno’ is the album’s standout (next to unofficial official Song of the Summer ‘Espresso’). But don’t think that cheek and wit is all Sabrina Carpenter has going for her. ‘Dumb & Poetic’ sees her just so mad she could cry over the most pretentious bonehead she’s had the misfortune to fall for. ‘Don’t Smile’ illustrates the numbness of the laying-in-bed-eating-ice-cream type of heartbreak, watching the world move on without you. ‘Lie to Girls’ is perhaps her most insightful, unromanticized perspective on relationships, as she sings about the ends of the Earth girls will go to just to hold on to something less than they deserve.

Sabrina Carpenter has been working her decade-long career to have a hit album like Short N’ Sweet, so what made this one The One? It’s the Sabrina-led revolution of female fortitude in pop music that other women seem to have been waiting to hear and by our calculations, will win the Grammy Award for Pop Vocal Album.

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HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, Billie Eilish

Long-anticipated. Mysterious. Powerful. Understated. Cohesive. Masterful. The list could go on to describe HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, Billie Eilish‘s third studio album. Her first album in almost three years, HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, is a perfect balance of the dark production and grit of her Grammy-winning 2019 debut, WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP WHERE DO WE GO, and the emotionality and gentle instrumentals of 2021’s Happier Than Ever. Billie Eilish has never been one to mold herself to fit into any kind of a metaphorical box, and in her third go around, she’s more outspoken, more daring, and the most confident of her unique artistry that she’s ever been.

Few artists are so in tune with the duality of their work as Billie Eilish, aptly named HIT ME HARD AND SOFT to capture the paradoxical sharp edges and dreaminess of her life in the spotlight. The softer side of her artistry shines on unguarded ‘SKINNY,’ tender ‘BIRDS OF A FEATHER,’ and calamitous ‘WILDFLOWER.’ Yet across the full album, her undeniable, unspoken power shines through the cracks she allows us to see. ‘THE GREATEST’ and ‘L’AMOUR DE MA VIE’ take on both sophistication and ferocity like a glorious double-edged sword, while ‘CHIHIRO’ and ‘THE DINER’ are the sleek, cool, and fresh Billie we all know and love. 

Quite simply, Billie Eilish is a world-class artist who creates some of the most captivating, dynamic, and electrifying music of the current scene, and HIT ME HARD AND SOFT is one of the most ambitious, creative projects of this year.

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eternal sunshine, Ariana Grande

Ariana Grande’s radiant return to music after almost four years, eternal sunshine, shows that she’s grown in almost every aspect of her life in her time away. Lyrically, she’s rarely been so honest, free, reflective, and undoubtedly sure of herself. This album marks her production debut alongside longtime collaborator (and producer legend) Max Martin. Her unparalleled vocal range has somehow gotten even stronger. The woman who has always dominated the art of the radio hit single has intentionally released all but one of the album’s thirteen tracks together as a complete project, proving she can produce a concept album just as well as individual pop smashes. The 35-minute eternal sunshine album is concise, dynamic, and doesn’t have a single skip.

Most of Ariana’s albums begin with an intro track, which sets up the themes and imagery of the album. From the start with ‘intro (end of the world),’ she’s ready to take accountability for her heart having doubts and take responsibility for finding what she longs for. But when the relationship is wrong, it’s wrong– and Ariana doesn’t hesitate to get away with a captivating ‘bye,’ which is an immediate reminder that absolutely no one does pop like Ariana Grande. And while she’s always been vocally sensational, this track soars above even her standards. The true heart of eternal sunshine comes in the three-track run of ‘we can’t be friends (wait for your love),’ ‘i wish i hated you,’ and ‘imperfect for you.’ Here, Ariana navigates the unavoidable trauma and heartbreak of homewrecker accusations and “rearrag[ing her] memories” and “rewrit[ing her] life” in an attempt to save a failing relationship (and marriage). But these things finally allow her to embrace the “messy” and “imperfect” new beginnings of finding new love, both romantically and within herself.

In the end, Ariana Grande emerges as metamorphosized, self-assured, grounded, and blissfully in love with her life. This project is Ariana’s most esteemed project to date, but does it have the star power to land her another win in the Pop Vocal Album category?

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The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan

Few names are bigger in the current pop music scene than Chappell Roan. Her popularity built organically before the supernova explosion of her mainstream success heading into the summer of 2024. Her colossally successful debut, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, is a once-in-a-generation phenomenon – or should we say, ‘Femininomenon?’ 

The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess doesn’t waste a single second on false pretenses – opener ‘Feminonmenon’ is everything you need to know about Chappell Roan. An addictive pop beat builds chorus after chorus, Chappell’s cheek oozing from every lyric as she calls to action. Leaning into her country-influenced beat patterns with a blown-out bass line on ‘Red Wine Supernova,’ Chappell powers through another undeniable hit. And her smoother vocals carry her through jazzier, darker dance tracks in ‘After Midnight’ and ‘My Kink Is Karma,’ where she proves everything is a little more fun if you treat it so, including the sultriest of sultry-pop and brash bitterness. 

While Chappell Roan could easily hide behind her huge personality and colossal pop hits, she has the vocal chops to shine in slower-paced, more emotionally-charged tracks as well, including ‘Coffee,’ ‘Kaleidoscope,’ and ‘California.’ Yet she finds the perfect balance of all her styles in ‘Casual,’ balancing remarkably relatable and sharply shrewd with the sonic atmosphere of a dark gymnasium dappled in disco ball lighting. From ‘Pink Pony Club’ to ‘Naked in Manhattan,’ Chappell injects pop-tinged desperation and brutal honesty into her rise to fame spanning from West Hollywood to the Big Apple, showing it hasn’t all been glitz and glamour and with ‘Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl’ and ‘HOT TO GO!,’ Chappell Roan settles herself into the modern median between Madonna and Hannah Montana.

But a title Chappell Roan takes as all her own? A top-notch pop superstar who’s just getting started and who should win

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THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT, Taylor Swift

THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT emerges as something that transcends an album. Taylor Swift has created a collection of songs that is tangible rather than describable. This is not a project that can be consumed and understood in a single go; it unearths a new gift with each listen, revealing poetic melodies, lyrics that explain the unexplainable, and production that mimics emotional turmoil (or should we say torture?), and the liberating hope that even the deepest heartbreak can foster a masterpiece. As Taylor said, “It’s the worst men I write best.” 

Virulent love that disguised itself as true love inspires album opener ‘Fortnight (feat. Post Malone)’ and solo-written ‘My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys.’ Taylor finds herself intoxicated with affection for worse or for better in ‘But Daddy I Love Him’ and ‘The Alchemy.’ Infamous in the world of Taylor Swift, track five ‘So Long, London’ embraces its role on the album as heartwrenching, reflective, and completely devastating. And while track five is laced with some resentment, Aaron Dessner-produced ‘loml’ vulnerably bares a heartbreak that will haunt her forever: “Your arson’s match, your somber eyes/I’ll see until I die/You’re the loss of my life.” 

While so many would cower in the face of heartbreak, Taylor emerges ferocious on tracks like sardonic ‘Down Bad,’ scorching ‘Florida!!! (feat. Florence + The Machine),’ and fiercely triumphant ‘Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me?’ The latter is a different kind of heartbreak; while a romantic heartbreak usually heals with time, life as a constant topic on people’s tongues seems to have left Taylor feeling dehumanized and powerless.

For an album that holds so much power in its words, we confidently use ours to say this: as Members of the Tortured Poets Department, we hereby declare that our Chairman, armed with quills and daggers, glitter and lace, pain and power, has penned one of the most noteworthy achievements of her illustrious career. But can she repeat her win from the 2024 GRAMMYs and take the title for Pop Vocal Album yet again?

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THP’s OFFICIAL GRAMMY PREDICTIONS:
And the GRAMMY goes to…
WILL WIN: Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter
SHOULD WIN: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan
HONORABLE MENTION: eternal sunshine, Ariana Grande

Tune into the 2025 GRAMMY Awards on February 2, 2025 to see who takes home the GRAMMY award for Pop Vocal Album. Full list of nominees can be found here. Between Sabrina, Billie, Ariana, Chappell, and Taylor who do you predict will be the winner of Pop Vocal Album? Let us know by commenting down below or by tweeting us @TheHoneyPOP! We are also on Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok!